Research

Working Papers

  • Racial, Ethnic, and Gender Disparities in the Pretrial Process: Evidence from Local Criminal Justice Systems (draft available upon request), with Laura Beckman, Nancy Rodriguez, and Santiago Campos-Rodriguez
    Updated 2026

    This study examines the effects of race, ethnicity, and gender on pretrial outcomes for defendants in a large and diverse urban setting. The focal concerns framework argues justice-system decisions are based on perceptions of culpability, redeemability, public danger, and system costs. We take this theory to the data and examine the extent to which justice-system decision makers treat defendants differentially at the intersection of these dimensions during pretrial. We find that minority men typically face more punitive outcomes, while minority women typically face more lenient ones, though these results are not uniform across all our outcomes. These findings support the design of policy interventions that are likely to be more cost effective for the community and equitable for defendants.

  • Estimating the Impact of Public Policy with Unobserved Variation [PDF]
    Updated 2026

    In recent years, many sub-state jurisdictions in the United States have introduced local economic policies previous only seen at the state or federal level. Because most publicly available data does not identify individuals at these local levels, estimating the impact of these state and federal policies is difficult as local variation will bias estimates. In this paper I propose a solution that combines an intention-to-treat approach with two-sample IV, where aggregates are sufficient for the first-stage estimation, and that identifies the local average treatment effect (LATE) of the policy. Using the recent prevalence of local minimum wage changes as a motivating case, I show this method provides statistically distinct results, when compared to standard methods, though differences are economically small and estimates are qualitatively similar to previous studies.

  • The Effects of Minimum Wage Policy on Self-Employment: Evidence from the Current Population Survey [PDF]
    Updated 2023

    This paper studies the effects of minimum wages on unincorporated self-employed workers in the US using the 1988-2020 Current Population Survey. Standard state level difference-in-differences estimates of self-employment and earnings elasticities find that increasing the minimum wage tends to decrease self-employment but has little effect on hours worked or earnings in the year following the change. Instrumental variable estimates are consistent with these findings but show large earnings gains for these workers. Using a simple model of labor market search, I show that minimum wage increases are potentially welfare improving and the welfare effects can be identified by changes in self-employment. Given this model, I show that between 1988-2020 minimum wage changes have been welfare improving on average.

Work in Progress

  • Minimum Wages, Gig Work, and Worker Welfare, with Lu Wang

    2026

  • Asset Market Participation, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy, with Lu Wang and Sarah Xiao

    2026

  • Misdemeanor Bail Reform and the Cost of Incarceration: Evidence from the ODonnell Consent Decree, with Nancy Rodriguez

    2026

  • Layers of Injustice: Exploring Racial Cumulative Disparities in the Criminal Justice System”, with Laura Beckman, Nancy Rodriguez, and Santiago Campos-Rodriguez

    2025

  • Gender Differences and Incentives in Competition: New Evidence from Tennis Grand Slam Tournaments
    Updated June 2024

Reports and Other Publications

  • Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Local Criminal Justice Systems [PDF] [MEDIA] with Nancy Rodriguez, Santiago Campos-Rodriguez, and Joanna Williams

    Safety and Justice Challenge, February 2025